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Showing posts with label Behavioral Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Behavioral Finance. Show all posts

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Making Money When the Market Is Mistaken from 2005 till now

2005 article from NYT 




Behavioral finance theory has gained currency among academics and economists as an alternative to the efficient-market theory, the belief that investors are rational and that the price of an asset is fair and accurate and reflects all available information about it.

According to principles of behavioral finance people are illogical, yet predictable. 
"Adherents of this approach do not ignore the nuts and bolts of business - profits, sales, cash flow and so forth. But they contend that investors consistently err in evaluating such information, and that astute portfolio managers can profit from the ways that others make mistakes."

Mutual funds with names like "Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value" were offered in 2001-2002 by J. P. Morgan followed a school of thought that there is good money to be made underestimating people's capacity to act rationally.

A Practical advice was offered by Mr. Tarca then the only Morningstar analyst following the funds:
"When companies have outperformed the market over three to five years, investors tend to extrapolate that performance out into the future," he said. "Investors become overconfident in their forecasting ability, they rush in to buy these glamour stocks, and they become overpriced."

But at the end "You really can't judge these on a short horizon," said Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale. So, how did they do after five rocky years till now? Latest news about those funds

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Behavioral Finance (Economics)

From Duke University - The Fuqua School of Business funny:



Few traits:
1. Irrational Behavior of investors
2. "Prospecting" theory - investors view the outcomes relative to the point where they started, such as "initial wealth" but not the underlying initial conditions of the market or stock itself.
3. Shortsightedness
4. Overconfidence
5. Hindsight Bias
6. "bipolar" approach
7. Representativeness
8. "Fear of regret" or "fear of losses" - tendency to sell winning stocks too soon and hold on to the loosing ones for too long due to "loss avoidance".
9. "Error of the Availability"
10."Halo Effect"
11."Framing"
12."Anchoring"
13. "Confirmation bias" - tendency to overweight confirming evidence, kind of like "selective vision" which is a result of unconscious "search for evidence"
14. "Escalation bias" or " sunk cost fallacy"


Researchers in the subject to look for:

1.James Montier "Behavioral Finance: Insights into Traditional Minds and Markets"

2.Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman(Stanford Univ, Nobel Prize in Economics 2002) "prospect theory"

3.Meir Statman (Santa Clara Univ)
4.Terry Odean (Univ of California at Berkeley)
5.John M. Keyes "people would rather fail conventionally than succeed unconventionally"
6.Stuart Sutherland "Irrationally: Why We Don't Think Straight!"
7.David Dreman?
8.Richard Thaler (Univ of Chicago) "Myopic Loss Aversion..."
9.Werner F.M. De Bondt (Univ?)
10.Terry Burnham "Mean Markets and Lizard Brains" (MIT?)
11.Woody Dorsey "Behavioral Trading: Methods for Measuring Investor Confidence...."

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