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Showing posts with label buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label buffett. Show all posts

Monday, January 17, 2011

Kelly Principle through the "Fortune's Formula" and Beyond

Author's page about Kelly
Fortune's Formula - Book Review from SIAM News Magazine
JE Kelly original Paper "A New Interpretation of Information Rate"
Kelly followers: Buffett, Munger, Legg Mason Capital Management CEO Bill Miller, per Peter Lindmark 2007 article at gurufocus.com; Bill Gross as per Wikipedia article stating that "taking more risk increases the probability of both very good and very bad outcomes. One of the most important ideas in Kelly is that betting more than the Kelly amount decreases the probability of very good results, while still increasing the probability of very bad results. Since in reality we seldom know the precise probabilities and payoffs, and since overbetting is worse than underbetting, it makes sense to err on the side of caution and bet less than the Kelly amount".
As one blogger simply put it:
"The formula is 2p - 1 = x
Where p is the probability of success, x is the portion of your bankroll (or portfolio) that should be allocated to this bet. If an event has a 40% chance of paying off, don't bet. If a bet has a 55% chance of winning, only put in 10% of your money. If the chance of winning is 95%, invest 90% of your money.
A Kelly bet is the most aggressive bet you should ever take. Bets larger than Kelly are inefficient money management and will cause you to lose your money. The Kelly bet size does not ensure the highest probability of making a gain, it ensures the highest profitability for a set of games, or trades. It is also known as "tear your hair out" trading, as in practice they are actually quite big bets for many games and your equity curve will be extremely volatile.

P.S. Peter Lindmark's return:
Lindmark Capital 2008

Peter Lindmark's Contrarian Book Recommendations

In an exclusive interview with Downside Protection Report, Peter Lindmark recommended the following books, which he has read or re-read recently:

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Remarkable Tweedy, Browne lost a partner, Christopher H. Browne


A Brief History from Tweedy website

Tweedy, Browne was founded by Forest Birchard Tweedy in 1920 as Tweedy & Co., a dealer in closely held and inactively traded securities. The firm’s 89-year history is grounded in undervalued securities, first as a market maker, then as an investor and investment advisor. Our investment approach derives from the work of the late Benjamin Graham who co-authored the first textbook on investment research, Security Analysis (1934) and authored The Intelligent Investor (1949). Graham, through his investment firm Graham-Newman Corp., was one of Tweedy’s primary brokerage clients in the 1930’s, 1940’s and 1950’s. It was through Graham that the original partners of Tweedy developed brokerage relationships with investment legends such as Walter Schloss and Warren Buffett, and met Tom Knapp who was to come to the firm in 1957 from Graham-Newman and lead its conversion from broker to investor.
In 1959, the partners of then Tweedy, Browne & Knapp pooled their capital in a partnership investment vehicle. In 1968, the firm accepted its first outside money management clients as limited partners of this vehicle. In 1975, Tweedy, Browne registered as an investment advisor and began managing separate accounts for individuals and institutions. As of September 30, 2009, the firm managed in excess of $9.7 billion for individuals, institutions, partnerships, off-shore funds and three mutual funds of a registered investment company, the Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund, the Tweedy, Browne Value Fund, and the Tweedy, Browne Worldwide High Dividend Yield Value Fund. A more complete account of the firm's colorful history is contained in theMarch 31, 1995 Annual Report to shareholders beginning on page 7. We think you will enjoy reading it.
In 2006, Tweedy, Browne began to broadly offer its clients a value strategy that seeks long-term growth of capital by investing in companies around the globe that the adviser believes to have above-average dividend yields, an established history of paying dividends and reasonable valuations. The firm has managed some accounts in this strategy since 1979 and began to offer it more broadly beginning in 2006. In September 2007, the firm launched the Tweedy, Browne Worldwide High Dividend Yield Value Fund, which can accommodate investors of all sizes. Learn more about this fund here.
Experienced Management
Tweedy, Browne is owned by its four Managing Directors, William H. Browne, Thomas H. Shrager, John D. Spears and Robert Q. Wyckoff, Jr.; former Managing Director and now Senior Adviser, Christopher H. Browne; a limited liability company established for the benefit of certain employees of Tweedy, Browne; and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. ("AMG"), which owns a majority interest in Tweedy, Browne. In its entire history, Tweedy, Browne has had only eleven principals, four of whom are currently active. The operations of Tweedy, Browne are managed by its Management Committee consisting of the firm's four Managing Directors who have been with the firm for tenures ranging from 18 to 35 years. Will Browne and John Spears have worked together and have served as principals of the firm for over 30 years. No Managing Director or former general partner has ever left Tweedy, Browne to join another investment firm.

Focus and Commitment

We do not attempt to be all things to all people, but instead pursue a value-oriented approach to investment management first pioneered by Benjamin Graham. We invest in undervalued common stocks in the United States and outside the United States. Tweedy, Browne first began investing outside the U.S. in 1983 by applying the same principles of value investing that we had successfully applied for the management of U.S. securities. The Managing Directors of Tweedy, Browne have always invested right alongside the firm's clients. As of September 30, 2009, the current Managing Directors and retired principals and their families, as well as employees of Tweedy, Browne had more than $651.3 million in portfolios combined with or similar to client portfolios, including approximately $86.9 million in the Global Fund and $49.5 million in the Value Fund and $6.1 million in the Worldwide High Dividend Yield Value Fund. We have always owned what our clients own.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Buffett - Chairman and CEO of BNSF Railway Company


Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation's subsidiary BNSF Railway Company operates one of the largest North American rail networks, with about 32,000 route miles in 28 states and two Canadian provinces. BNSF Railway Company is among the world's top transporters of intermodal traffic, moves more grain than any other American railroad, carries the components of many of the products we depend on daily, and hauls enough low-sulfur coal to generate about ten percent of the electricity produced in the United States. BNSF Railway Company is an industry leader in Web-enabling a variety of customer transactions at www.bnsf.com.


Ownership Reports from: (Click on owner name to see other issuer holdings for the owner, or CIK for owner filings.)

Owner
Filings
Transaction Date
Type of Owner
ICE CARL R
0001199828
2009-11-10
officer: Executive V. P. and COO
RICKERSHAUSER PETER J
0001199831
2009-11-10
officer: VP - Network Development
PIGGOTT JULIE A
0001472600
2009-10-01
officer: VP & Controller
WHITACRE EDWARD E JR
0001184363
2009-09-30
director
ROBERTS ROY S
0001200813
2009-09-30
director
TELLES CYNTHIA ANN
0001473209
2009-09-24
director
ROSE MATTHEW K
0001200246
2009-09-11
director, officer: Chairman President and CEO
SHAPIRO MARC J
0001179585
2009-07-28
director
HUND THOMAS N
0001199826
2009-07-28
officer: Executive VP and CFO
Bischler Paul W
0001328442
2009-06-04
officer: Controller
WEST ROBERT H
0001138529
2009-04-27
director
MARTINEZ VILMA S
0001182156
2009-04-27
director
WHISLER J STEVEN
0001192050
2009-04-27
director
BOECKMANN ALAN L
0001194751
2009-04-27
director
RACICOT MARC F
0001200812
2009-04-27
director
WATTS J C JR
0001213577
2009-04-27
director
LANIGAN JOHN P JR
0001215665
2009-04-27
officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer
LONGO KAZANOVA LINDA
0001220860
2009-04-27
officer: VP - HR and Medical
Cook Donald G
0001334785
2009-04-27
director
Nober Roger
0001383926
2009-04-27
officer: EVP - Law and Secretary
OBH INC
0000109694
2009-01-30
10 percent owner
NATIONAL INDEMNITY CO
0000314943
2009-01-30
10 percent owner
BUFFETT WARREN E
0000315090
2009-01-30
director, officer: Chairman and CEO
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC
0001067983
2009-01-30
10 percent owner
MORELAND JEFFREY R
0001199830
2007-05-31
officer: EVP Law Govt Affairs and Secy
JOHNSON DENNIS R
0001199829
2005-05-02
officer: Vice President and Controller
YANNEY MICHAEL B
0001178655
2005-02-14
director
BURNS JOHN J JR
0001014159
2004-03-31
director
SCHULTZ CHARLES L
0001200248
2003-05-23
officer: Executive Vice President

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Buffett Market Timing was perfect!

It's always interesting to see how future unfolds just to confirm how right he was.
In 2005 CNN, Buffett: "If you told me I had to go away for 20 years, I would rather take an index fund over long-term bonds. You'll get a chance to do something extremely intelligent with your money in the next few years. But right now there doesn't seem to be a clear enough direction to conclude anything dramatic."

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